To the last two questions, the answer would be yes.
The industry as a whole is too large. The supply is greater than the demand. There is no cost effective way to get the goods to the people. Every medium is hyper-niched now. Before we had three major networks, a handful of music programs, radio was strong. There was a guaranteed way to get to people. Now there is not. Even if you could get to people now, they don't have the money to be spending on entertainment.
CCM radio is hurting. They aren't showing up to GMA week like they were. They don't have the market share they once had. What share they did have was pretty darn small. Marketing directly to churches is a good idea, but having them promote shows is not. The industry needs to get back to large local and regional buyers, who can average out their expenses and losses. The church needs to get out of "business". Churches have helped kill the industry they like. They have driven the prices down, down, down.
In Christian music, record company presidents were putting second mortgages on their homes to finance projects they believed in. They need big money to make it work now, because credit is too hard to come by. So, we need some savvy, Christian, businessman, who is now connected with publishing, retail, etc to step up and reshape the business model. The owner of Mardel would be a great candidate.
The more I think about this, the more I get burned up.
Addendum:
I just saw this this morning and it pertains to this conversation.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/4-Reasons ... 3.html?x=0 Specifically this paragraph below:
"When the price of cars or sweaters or iPods declines, it's a break for consumers and a welcome sign that economic productivity is improving. That helps drive up living standards. But when the price of everything drops, it's an alarming development that portends stagnation....
If you feel like cheering, don't. The Federal Reserve, with a mandate to keep inflation in check, prefers a "Goldilocks" economy, neither too hot nor too cold, with modest growth and an annual increase in prices of 1 to 3 percent. But inflation projections for the next couple of years are now coming in lower than that, and Fed policymakers have begun to hash out what to do if overall prices actually start falling. Here's why deflation can be such a thorny problem:
Once it arrives, deflation is hard to cure. Sustained deflation can become a pernicious problem that's hard to shake even when the government attacks it, as Japan has learned over a prolonged deflationary period that began in 1991. Falling prices cut into revenue at firms that build things and provide services, so they need to cut costs to remain profitable. That usually leads to layoffs and pay cuts. When people bring home less money, they invariably feel worse off and buy less. So demand for products falls further, forcing even deeper price cuts to entice consumers. Breaking the cycle becomes a destructive game of chicken between companies and consumers, with neither willing to take the first step."
This is the music industry. Cheap product to cheap people only works for so long. There is no money coming to build studios (because the great ones are going away, because their land is more valuable now than the business), to buy gear, to pay musicians, engineers, producers, composers, management, marketing, tour support, etc, etc. Someone has to step up first to get revenues up. Nobody will.
